# Source code for axelrod.strategies.hmm

from random import randrange
import numpy.random as random
from numpy.random import choice

from axelrod.action import Action
from axelrod.evolvable_player import EvolvablePlayer, InsufficientParametersError, copy_lists, crossover_lists
from axelrod.player import Player
from axelrod.random_ import random_choice, random_vector

C, D = Action.C, Action.D

[docs]def is_stochastic_matrix(m, ep=1e-8) -> bool:
"""Checks that the matrix m (a list of lists) is a stochastic matrix."""
for i in range(len(m)):
for j in range(len(m[i])):
if (m[i][j] < 0) or (m[i][j] > 1):
return False
s = sum(m[i])
if abs(1.0 - s) > ep:
return False
return True

def normalize_vector(vec):
s = sum(vec)
vec = [v / s for v in vec]
return vec

[docs]def mutate_row(row, mutation_probability):
""", crossover_lists_of_lists
Given a row of probabilities, randomly change each entry with probability
mutation_probability (a value between 0 and 1).  If changing, then change
by a value randomly (uniformly) chosen from [-0.25, 0.25] bounded by 0 and
100%.
"""
randoms = random.random(len(row))
for i in range(len(row)):
if randoms[i] < mutation_probability:
ep = random.uniform(-1, 1) / 4
row[i] += ep
if row[i] < 0:
row[i] = 0
if row[i] > 1:
row[i] = 1
return row

[docs]class SimpleHMM(object):
"""Implementation of a basic Hidden Markov Model. We assume that the
transition matrix is conditioned on the opponent's last action, so there
are two transition matrices. Emission distributions are stored as Bernoulli
probabilities for each state. This is essentially a stochastic FSM.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidden_Markov_model
"""

def __init__(
self, transitions_C, transitions_D, emission_probabilities, initial_state
) -> None:
"""
Params
------
transitions_C and transitions_D are square stochastic matrices:
lists of lists with all values in [0, 1] and rows that sum to 1.
emission_probabilities is a vector of values in [0, 1]
initial_state is an element of range(0, len(emission_probabilities))
"""
self.transitions_C = transitions_C
self.transitions_D = transitions_D
self.emission_probabilities = emission_probabilities
self.state = initial_state

[docs]    def is_well_formed(self) -> bool:
"""
Determines if the HMM parameters are well-formed:
- Both matrices are stochastic
- Emissions probabilities are in [0, 1]
- The initial state is valid.
"""
if not is_stochastic_matrix(self.transitions_C):
return False
if not is_stochastic_matrix(self.transitions_D):
return False
for p in self.emission_probabilities:
if (p < 0) or (p > 1):
return False
if self.state not in range(0, len(self.emission_probabilities)):
return False
return True

def __eq__(self, other: Player) -> bool:
"""Equality of two HMMs"""
check = True
for attr in [
"transitions_C",
"transitions_D",
"emission_probabilities",
"state",
]:
check = check and getattr(self, attr) == getattr(other, attr)
return check

[docs]    def move(self, opponent_action: Action) -> Action:
"""Changes state and computes the response action.

Parameters
opponent_action: Axelrod.Action
The opponent's last action.
"""
num_states = len(self.emission_probabilities)
if opponent_action == C:
next_state = choice(num_states, 1, p=self.transitions_C[self.state])
else:
next_state = choice(num_states, 1, p=self.transitions_D[self.state])
self.state = next_state
p = self.emission_probabilities[self.state]
action = random_choice(p)
return action

[docs]class HMMPlayer(Player):
"""
Abstract base class for Hidden Markov Model players.

Names

- HMM Player: Original name by Marc Harper
"""

name = "HMM Player"

classifier = {
"memory_depth": 1,
"stochastic": True,
"makes_use_of": set(),
"long_run_time": False,
"inspects_source": False,
"manipulates_source": False,
"manipulates_state": False,
}

def __init__(
self,
transitions_C=None,
transitions_D=None,
emission_probabilities=None,
initial_state=0,
initial_action=C
) -> None:
super().__init__()
if not transitions_C:
transitions_C = []
transitions_D = []
emission_probabilities = [0.5]  # Not stochastic
initial_state = 0
self.initial_state = initial_state
self.initial_action = initial_action
self.hmm = SimpleHMM(
copy_lists(transitions_C), copy_lists(transitions_D), list(emission_probabilities), initial_state
)
assert self.hmm.is_well_formed()
self.state = self.hmm.state
self.classifier["stochastic"] = self.is_stochastic()

[docs]    def is_stochastic(self) -> bool:
"""Determines if the player is stochastic."""
# If the transitions matrices and emission_probabilities are all 0 or 1
# Then the player is stochastic
values = set(self.hmm.emission_probabilities)
for m in [self.hmm.transitions_C, self.hmm.transitions_D]:
for row in m:
values.update(row)
if not values.issubset({0, 1}):
return True
return False

[docs]    def strategy(self, opponent: Player) -> Action:
if len(self.history) == 0:
return self.initial_action
else:
action = self.hmm.move(opponent.history[-1])
# Record the state for testing purposes, this isn't necessary
# for the strategy to function
self.state = self.hmm.state
return action

[docs]class EvolvableHMMPlayer(HMMPlayer, EvolvablePlayer):
"""Evolvable version of HMMPlayer."""
name = "EvolvableHMMPlayer"

def __init__(
self,
transitions_C=None,
transitions_D=None,
emission_probabilities=None,
initial_state=0,
initial_action=C,
num_states=None,
mutation_probability=None
) -> None:
transitions_C, transitions_D, emission_probabilities, initial_state, initial_action, num_states, mutation_probability = self._normalize_parameters(
transitions_C, transitions_D, emission_probabilities, initial_state, initial_action, num_states, mutation_probability)
self.mutation_probability = mutation_probability
HMMPlayer.__init__(self,
transitions_C=transitions_C,
transitions_D=transitions_D,
emission_probabilities=emission_probabilities,
initial_state=initial_state,
initial_action=initial_action)
EvolvablePlayer.__init__(self)
self.overwrite_init_kwargs(
transitions_C=transitions_C,
transitions_D=transitions_D,
emission_probabilities=emission_probabilities,
initial_state=initial_state,
initial_action=initial_action,
num_states=num_states,
mutation_probability=mutation_probability
)

@classmethod
def _normalize_parameters(cls, transitions_C=None, transitions_D=None, emission_probabilities=None,
initial_state=None, initial_action=None, num_states=None, mutation_probability=None):
if not (transitions_C and transitions_D and emission_probabilities and (initial_state is not None) and (initial_action is not None)):
if not num_states:
raise InsufficientParametersError("Insufficient Parameters to instantiate EvolvableHMMPlayer")
transitions_C, transitions_D, emission_probabilities, initial_state, initial_action = cls.random_params(
num_states)
# Normalize types of various matrices
for m in [transitions_C, transitions_D]:
for i in range(len(m)):
m[i] = list(map(float, m[i]))
emission_probabilities = list(map(float, emission_probabilities))
num_states = len(emission_probabilities)
if mutation_probability is None:
mutation_probability = 10 / (num_states ** 2)
else:
mutation_probability = mutation_probability
return transitions_C, transitions_D, emission_probabilities, initial_state, initial_action, num_states, mutation_probability

@classmethod
def random_params(cls, num_states):
transitions_C = []
transitions_D = []
emission_probabilities = []
for _ in range(num_states):
transitions_C.append(random_vector(num_states))
transitions_D.append(random_vector(num_states))
emission_probabilities.append(random.random())
initial_state = randrange(num_states)
initial_action = C
return transitions_C, transitions_D, emission_probabilities, initial_state, initial_action

@property
def num_states(self):
return len(self.hmm.emission_probabilities)

@staticmethod
def mutate_rows(rows, mutation_probability):
for i, row in enumerate(rows):
row = mutate_row(row, mutation_probability)
rows[i] = normalize_vector(row)
return rows

[docs]    def mutate(self):
transitions_C = self.mutate_rows(
self.hmm.transitions_C, self.mutation_probability)
transitions_D = self.mutate_rows(
self.hmm.transitions_D, self.mutation_probability)
emission_probabilities = mutate_row(
self.hmm.emission_probabilities, self.mutation_probability)
initial_action = self.initial_action
if random.random() < self.mutation_probability / 10:
initial_action = self.initial_action.flip()
initial_state = self.initial_state
if random.random() < self.mutation_probability / (10 * self.num_states):
initial_state = randrange(self.num_states)
return self.create_new(
transitions_C=transitions_C,
transitions_D=transitions_D,
emission_probabilities=emission_probabilities,
initial_state=initial_state,
initial_action=initial_action,
)

[docs]    def crossover(self, other):
if other.__class__ != self.__class__:
raise TypeError("Crossover must be between the same player classes.")
transitions_C = crossover_lists(self.hmm.transitions_C, other.hmm.transitions_C)
transitions_D = crossover_lists(self.hmm.transitions_D, other.hmm.transitions_D)
emission_probabilities = crossover_lists(
self.hmm.emission_probabilities, other.hmm.emission_probabilities)
return self.create_new(
transitions_C=transitions_C,
transitions_D=transitions_D,
emission_probabilities=emission_probabilities
)

[docs]    def receive_vector(self, vector):
"""
Read a serialized vector into the set of HMM parameters (less initial
state).  Then assign those HMM parameters to this class instance.

Assert that the vector has the right number of elements for an HMMParams
class with self.num_states.

Assume the first num_states^2 entries are the transitions_C matrix.  The
next num_states^2 entries are the transitions_D matrix.  Then the next
num_states entries are the emission_probabilities vector.  Finally the last
entry is the initial_action.
"""

assert(len(vector) == 2 * self.num_states ** 2 + self.num_states + 1)

def deserialize(vector):
matrix = []
for i in range(self.num_states):
row = vector[self.num_states * i: self.num_states * (i + 1)]
row = normalize_vector(row)
matrix.append(row)
return matrix

break_tc = self.num_states ** 2
break_td = 2 * self.num_states ** 2
break_ep = 2 * self.num_states ** 2 + self.num_states
initial_state = 0
self.hmm = SimpleHMM(
deserialize(vector[0:break_tc]),
deserialize(vector[break_tc:break_td]),
normalize_vector(vector[break_td:break_ep]),
initial_state
)
self.initial_action = C if round(vector[-1]) == 0 else D
self.initial_state = initial_state

[docs]    def create_vector_bounds(self):
"""Creates the bounds for the decision variables."""
vec_len = 2 * self.num_states ** 2 + self.num_states + 1
lb = [0.0] * vec_len
ub = [1.0] * vec_len
return lb, ub

[docs]class EvolvedHMM5(HMMPlayer):
"""
An HMM-based player with five hidden states trained with an evolutionary
algorithm.

Names:

- Evolved HMM 5: Original name by Marc Harper
"""

name = "Evolved HMM 5"

classifier = {
"memory_depth": 5,
"stochastic": True,
"makes_use_of": set(),
"long_run_time": False,
"inspects_source": False,
"manipulates_source": False,
"manipulates_state": False,
}

def __init__(self) -> None:
initial_state = 3
initial_action = C
t_C = [
[1, 0, 0, 0, 0],
[0, 1, 0, 0, 0],
[0, 1, 0, 0, 0],
[0.631, 0, 0, 0.369, 0],
[0.143, 0.018, 0.118, 0, 0.721],
]

t_D = [
[0, 1, 0, 0, 0],
[0, 0.487, 0.513, 0, 0],
[0, 0, 0, 0.590, 0.410],
[1, 0, 0, 0, 0],
[0, 0.287, 0.456, 0.146, 0.111],
]

emissions = [1, 0, 0, 1, 0.111]
super().__init__(t_C, t_D, emissions, initial_state, initial_action)